Concretebroker

Blog

article title image

Published on 2/6/2020

Published by marketing@concretebroker.com.au

At World of Concrete 2020, PCA Economic Forecast Sees Continued Growth

Economic Forecast Sees Continued Growth Steady demand expected to offset possible economic shocks


 

Source ENR

By Jeff Rubensone

 

Jeff-rubenstone

Jeff Rubenstone is Associate Editor, Technology & Equipment at the Engineering News-Record. He covers equipment, tools, and building products as well as emerging technologies and construction innovations. He is based in New York City.

 

Photo Courtesy of Jeff Rubenstone for ENR

 

Alongside swarms of contractors and other industry professionals pouring in to see the latest in concrete equipment, tools and products at the annual World of Concrete trade show in Las Vegas, the Portland Cement Association released a relatively rosy economic forecast for 2020 into 2021. 

“The economy is strong,” said Ed Sullivan, PCA executive vice president and chief economist at the early February event. “We expect to see continued moderate economic growth.”

His forecast outlines continued modest growth in both real dollars spent on construction and in overall cement consumption over the next several years. 

Strong consumer demand and a robust labor market are the main drivers, and Sullivan said there are no signs yet of the economy overheating. 

 

 

Chart Courtesy of PCA Economics 

 

“We’ve been growing on now over eleven years. It’s the longest economic recovery ever,” noted Sullivan. “Recessions don’t just happen, they are caused, typically in respond to excessed,” says Sullivan. “And because this has been the slowest growing economic recovery…it also [has] the smallest growth. It doesn’t generate those excesses, it doesn’t create a need for recession.”

But a long, slow recovery does have potential downsides. While the leading indicators are still good, there are potential shocks that could derail the U.S. economy going into 2021 and 2022. “Let’s face it. As you go for eleven years, as recovery ages, it loses some of its zip. It loses some of its vigor,” added Sullivan. T

The current economic expansion is getting a bit old in the tooth, and Sullivan sees signs of major metropolitan regions of the country entering a “late-stage-recovery” where the local economies are beginning to cool. “As you lose some of that zip, you become more vulnerable to potential disruptions,” he says.

“What are those risks, what could knock us off? Well it was the tariffs, and we looked at the possibility they could actually hurt the economy, and we worked that through. And they did detract from overall economic growth, but it never sent us negative,” said Sullivan. “And a global slowdown with the threat of Brexit, and now you got this virus out there—and it still didn’t push us to negative growth.” 

Shifting winds in Washington, D.C., are a major concern for PCA, and there are several possible policy changes that could affect the economy and by extension the construction industry over the next year. Sullivan is closely watching for a surge in federal spending on infrastructure, particularly a possible expansion of FAST grants.

Congress will have to deal with the further extension of sequestration, where automatic budget cuts could be triggered by inaction or gridlock.

Sullivan added that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election this fall, PCA expects the industry to have to adjust to new climate-change legislation and policies.

He expects to see major climate policies implemented at either the federal level or at the state level in the next few years, depending on the outcome of the election.

 

 

Article Image

CONCRETE ADMIXTURE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO REACH $38 BN BY 2024

Top Players Are CEMEX, BASF, RPM International, Bostik, CICO Group, Sika, MAPEI, Dow, FOSROC, Euclid

Article Image

SELF-COMPACTING CONCRETE MARKET WILL ACHIEVE 4.5% GROWTH TO CROSS $30.2BN BY 2024

The growing oil & gas industry to lift self-compacting concrete market size by 2024

Article Image

GLOBAL CONCRETE SAW MARKET - TOP COMPANIES AND TRENDS BY 2023

Hitachi, Ryobi, Evolution Power Tools and QVTOOLS

Article Image

CAN THE CURRENT GROWTH IN CONCRETE MARKETS BE SUSTAINED?

Increased levels of urbanisation are adding to continued growth in the concrete industry worldwide

Article Image

DECORATIVE CONCRETE, UP, UP AND AWAY TIL 2025

The Decorative Concrete Market set to thrive to 2025

Article Image

US CONCRETE HEADS TO TEXAS

US Concrete places it's footprint with an acquisition in Texas

Article Image

US CONCRETE COULD GO HIGHER BECAUSE OF STATE SPENDING

"I like that stock. I think that stock could have another leg up here once the states start funding more business."

Article Image

DECORATIVE CONCRETE MARKET TO REACH USD 15.35 BILLION BY 2026

The rising demand from the residential construction sector

Article Image

CONSTRUCTION TRUCK MARKET TO REMAIN STRONG IN 2018: MACK

trucknews.com's James Menzies takes a look at the 2018 truck market whilst hopping inside the latest Mack

Article Image

INCREASE YOUR MARKET SHARE WITH YILN

Have your cake and eat it too with the concretebroker marketing mix - YILN. Learn how concretebroker.com.au can help to reach your audience, get more customers and grow your market share by optimising your online presence. 

 


Tags: concrete 2020 concrete USA economics ENR forecast world of concrete


This article was written by marketing@concretebroker.com.au all rights reserved. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of concretebroker.com